Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Final Pipeline Show Mock Draft

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For the past month we have been releasing our team-by-team draft previews - one per day... one player at a time.

When we began we decided that we simply had to lock in our picks for the month or else, as our opinions changed, we could realistically see one player ending up with 4 or 5 different teams.

Instead we locked them in a lived with them for the month and the fans of those teams weren't always shy about letting us know how we did. Some of our picks were praised, some of them were shredded but thankfully, no one can say we were wrong. Why? Because now we get to change our minds!

As we stated before the monthly previews started coming out, today is the day when we announce or official mock draft. We've had 30 days since we revealed our thoughts for the Islanders with the 1st overall pick. Since then we've spoken with several scouts, NHL GMs or other executives... we've picked the brains of players who were at the combine... chatted with other media guys covering other teams and leagues... and we've polished our crystal ball and tried to read the tea leaves too.

You'll notice something different about our mock draft pretty soon after you start checking it out.

A few weeks ago Dean and I decided that it would be cool and unique in our write up to include potential trades. As we've learned since making that decision, it's also pretty frickin' hard! Afterall, there is the potential for a bazillion different trades to go down and we're not party to the behind the scenes negotiations that may occur. Predicting trades is probably 50 times harder than predicting the order of the draft.

EDIT* - some folks who have read the mock below are getting a bit bent out of shape over the trades suggested. Instead of arguing that the names thrown out there aren't enough to get it done... just assume that whatever the trade particulars are, both teams come away happy. The important part of this little exercise isn't the particulars of the trades... it's just that a trade was made and how that changes the draft this year. That's it.

But it's kind of fun and it is unique so screw it... here we go.

Here's how we'd like you took look at this: The order of the players in the mock draft we're taking a lot more seriously than the trades... the swaps, (while we think plausible), are more for fun so take those with a grain of salt. Since we're not stating a specific list of transactions you'll just have to assume that both teams received enough of a return in the deal to make it worthwhile. (There will be some footnotes at the bottom where we explain the rationale behind the trades predicted). Fair enough?

One more thing. On Thursday we will be offering up our own personal Top 30 lists; not a mock draft, but our list of who we feel the 30 best prospects available to be. They won't get picked in that order but if we were doing the picking, they'd be the first 30 guys on our team's list.

OK, enough stalling. Here now is our FINAL PIPELINE SHOW MOCK DRAFT:

GUY FLAMING

1. Victor Hedman - NYI
2. John Tavares - TOR*
3. Matt Duchene - COL
4. Evander Kane - ATL
5. Brayden Schenn - TOR**
6. Dmitry Kulikov - PHX
7. Jared Cowen - TBY***
8. Magnus P-Svensson - DAL
9. Nazem Kadri - OTT
10. John Moore - EDM
11. Oliver Ekman-Larsson - NSH
12. Scott Glennie – MIN
13. David Rundblad – BUF
14. Zack Kassian – FLA
15. Jordan Schroeder – ANH
16. Jacob Josefson – CLB
17. Chris Kreider – STL
18. Ryan Ellis – TBY*^
19. Kyle Palmieri – NYR
20. Carter Ashton – CGY
21. Peter Holland – PHI
22. Simon Despres – VAN
23. Louis Leblanc – NJ
24. Drew Shore – WSH
25. Ethan Werek – BOS
26. Landon Ferraro – SJ^
27. Jeremy Morin – CAR
28. Zach Budish – CHI
29. Calvin deHaan – DET
30. Jordan Caron – PGH

Trade Notes:
* Toronto swaps 1st round picks with Tampa Bay by also including one of either Pavel Kubina or Tomas Kaberle (plus whatever else was necessary)
** Toronto also aquires the 5th overall pick and Jack Johnson from LA in exchange for a package highlighted by goalie Vesa Toskala, either Kubina or Kaberle (whoever TBY didn't take) as well as picks to balance it out. In my world the Leafs are comfortable making this deal because they know goalie Jonas Gustavsson is on the way to them.
*** Missing out on Hedman, Tampa uses the pick they just got from Toronto to take another possible franchise defenceman in Cowen.
*^ New ownership, the draft in their own backyard... what better time or place to finally pull off the trade that brings Vincent Lecavalier to Montreal? TBY gets the 18th overall pick, Chris Higgins plus a slew of prospects while the Habs and their fans get the center they've been desperately seeking.
^ With no picks in round one but a pair in the second, GM Doug Wilson puts together another packaging that enables his scouting staff to land a potential impact player - a sniper out of the WHL. The Islanders have shown a willingness to add assets and picking up a pair of 2nd rounders from the Sharks for a late 1st definitely fits the pattern.

DEAN MILLARD

1. John Tavares – NYI
2. Victor Hedman – TBY
3. Matt Duchene – COL
4. Evander Kane – ATL
5. Brayden Schenn – TOR *
6. Dmitry Kulikov – PHX
7. Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson – LA*
8. Jared Cowen – DAL
9. Nazem Kadri – OTT
10. Scott Glennie – EDM
11. John Moore – FLA **
12. David Rundblad – MIN
13. Zach Kassian – BUF
14. Louis Leblanc – NASH **
15. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – ANA
16. Jacob Josefson – CJB
17. Jordan Schroeder – STL
18. Peter Holland – MTL
19. Drew Shore – NYR
20. Landon Ferraro – CGY
21. Ryan Ellis – PHI
22. Chris Kreider – VAN
23. Kyle Palmieri – NJ
24. Jeremy Morin – WAS
25. Simon Depres – BOS
26. Jordon Caron – NYI
27. Dimitri Orlov – CAR
28. Ethan Werek – CHI
29. Dylan Olsen – DET
30. Zach Budish – PIT

Trade Notes:
*Toronto moves up 2 spots sending Pavel Kubina to LA for the 5th pick. The Kings in the past have taken a player off the board, and with all the concerns about MPS they are happy to take him after he slides to 7, as well as picking up a veteran blueliner, although they might have to throw in a later round pick to complete the deal.
**Losing Jay Bouwmeester to impending free agency, Florida needs a replacement, and John Moore might end up as a better skater than Bouwmeester. To move up 3 spots will likely only cost Florida a 2nd round pick. The Preds can trade down and still get a nice player in Louis Leblanc.

So there you have it... our official 2009 Mock Draft. Here's a friendly reminder that tonight on the show we'll have Trevor Timmins of the Montreal Canadiens on to talk about the Habs draft strategy heading in (NO I didn't mention to him about my Lecavalier trade theory!).

It's also our Annual ISS Draft Preview Show. Mike Oke from ISS will be answering your emails all night in regards to prospects available for Friday's big event. Visit our main site for more details on the big show.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Toronto makes out like bandits in Guys mock draft, no way they get both Schenn and Tavares in this draft. Kaberle and Kubina even with picks are simply not good enough assets in a cap world to get Tavares AND Schenn.

raventalon40 said...

@ Anonymous

See Sedin twins, and NHL Entry Draft

Guy Flaming said...

Before hordes of people start commenting about how the suggested packages (even as incomplete as I wrote them) are not enough to get those deals done...

keep in mind that what we stated here was that the actual trades aren't what we care about.

Just go with TOR gave LA whatever it took to get the 5th pick... and go from there.

Maybe it your world it was their 1st rounder for the next ten years and a clone of Borje Salming. The particulars of the trade aren't what matters here... it's that there WAS a trade and then who the new team selected using their new pick.

OK?

alphahelix said...

Toronto just doesn't have the assets to get both the 2nd and 5th, but they would be absolutely THRILLED if they could, and would certainly be willing to part with just about anything to get it done. Kubina, Kaberle, Toskala, their first? I don't know if LA considers Toskala much of an option, but.. hey. Toronto would most likely have to strip themselves right down to the bone to accomplish this, and it would probably involve moving other players for more valuable trade pieces before moving into this like other picks and such. Because most of their players don't carry that much value on their own.

Also, John Moore to Edmonton? Really?



I have to say though, you both did a great job and I think you have nicely projected everything based on what is known of most teams intentions. Definitely a difficult task to stick your neck out and predict the whole draft day break down from top to bottom.

I never considered the possibility that we would draft John Moore and I very much hope that we either move up from our 10th or 40th positions, one or the other.

Thanks und kudos for the article.

alphahelix said...

I should really use the preview feature.

DJ Powers said...

Guy and Dean,

Good lists except for the following...

1) I just don't see Schroeder falling as far down as #17. I think he'll be gone then. Many are speculating that he could be picked up by the Wild.

2) As much as I love the guy, I just don't see Zach Budish going in the first round. If any MNHS kid goes in the first round, I think it'll be Nick Leddy. This kid has some serious skill, trust me!

3)Guy, your pick of John Moore to the Oilers is intriguing. I recently saw some tape of him and I absolutely love the way he skates. I really hope that he'll be at CC this fall.

rob said...

The problem guy, is it is not remotely realistic for Toronto to have picks 2 and 5, at all and you know this

Anonymous said...

There's no way the Wild pass on Schroeder, they have to prove that there down with the home state and they probably trade up to grab Leddy or Budish just to make a statement late first round. I may not be the right thing to do but it's a new direction.

Guy Flaming said...

Interesting thoughts on Schroeder to Minnesota. When we released our daily previews and both Dean and I had Schroeder going to the Wild, fans of the team told us we were assuming far too much and that the team has stated locally that they weren't drafting small players.

Friday should be fun.

Robb Hunter said...

Word out of Camrose is that Olsen has talked to 29 teams with the only non interest coming from San Jose. The thought being they don't have a first round pick, aren't in talks to get one and don't expect him to be available when they get around to making a second round pick.

Guy Flaming said...

Hey Robb...

And yet 'word' out of Calgary is that the Flames might have an interest in him when they pick at #20.

Who knows? It will make for an interesting day on Friday though for sure.

Robb Hunter said...

Hense him not being available for San Jose to pick.

To Clarify 'word'

'word' = Boris talking to Cam FM.